Before the new PGA Tour season begins, it’s worth taking a look back at the surprising results of the 2021-22 season. It’s been one of the chalkiest seasons in history, which means more top players (at odds) are winning at a frequency we haven’t seen in recent years. According to the RickRunGood.com golf database, more than half of last season’s winners (23 of 44 Tour winners) were at odds of 30-1 or less. Go a step further. 38.6% of the winners have odds of 20-1 or less. (To illustrate, in this week’s Fortinet Championship field of 154, only three entrants are at odds of 20-1 or less.)
In the first two seasons, only 22% of the winners were 20-1 or lower, which means we nearly doubled that percentage last season. The average winning odds for the 2021-22 season are 42-1, compared to 72-1 in 2021 and 2020.
Nine different multi-time winners and five successful defending champions combined to create a “perfect storm” of chalky winners. With natural returns and an influx of talent on the Korn Ferry Tour, these are unlikely to continue.
Here are 10 golfers who will make money for you during the 2022-23 PGA Tour season.
Pendrith’s rookie season was slowed by four months with a fractured rib. Despite missing most of the season, he still impressed Trevor Immelman enough to earn a spot on his International Presidents Cup squad.
The senior metric is strong for Pendris, who bombs it off the tee — he finished 10th on the tour last season. Even more impressively, he got the ball on the field at an elite clip pace. Last season, he scored at least two shots in 39.7 percent of his possessions. According to RickRunGood.com’s golf database, there were only 15 golfers who scored so many strokes at such a high rate last season.
Those 15 golfers accounted for 27 of the 48 available victories, including all four majors. The only two on the list did not win: Tommy Fleetwood and Taylor Pendrith. I believe Pendress has added “PGA Tour Champions” to his resume this season.
Allow me to step on the rake again.I Very bullish on Wise last season, thanks to his excellent tee-to-green play and improved putting. Despite not winning last season, I can pretty much apply my fundamentals from last year here.
Wise ends the 2022 season as the tour’s 25th best player from tee-to-green and 81st in putter.This is by far the best putting season since 2018, and only the second time in his career he has really done it get Hit with a flat stick.
Add to that his late season performances in the top 15 in 5 of his last 11 starts and I’m ready for another injury!
I’ll be serious about winning a Grand Slam soon, or you can’t convince me. There are very few golfers on the tour who are both elite and well-rounded, and that’s how Sungjae Im is described.
He was sixth on tour last season in strokes/totals, behind Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, Will Zara Torres, Justin Thomas and Scot Tee Scheffler, five golfers with 10 wins and three majors in 2022.
im s Worst The category is SG/Method and he finished 45th for the year. His two career victories came at the Honda Classic and the Holy Land Children’s Open, which were similar in scoring difficulty. He can win in all conditions and compete in all fields. He’s ready for the next breakthrough.
Remember him? The 2018 John Deere Classic winner who missed nearly all the promotions from 2019 to 2021… is back! Kim has returned to form and was extremely competitive on the Korn Ferry Tour last season. He has played in 15 of his last 16 races, including a seventh-place finish at the Barbasol Championship, his last of the year.
He has five more top-20 finishes and a PGA Tour card for the 2022-2023 season. How can you not support this man?
He’s unlikely to find a winner’s circle this new season, but he’s already proven his edge. He should be a solid investment for most top 10 and counterpoint markets.
Yuan Zheng won the Korn Ferry Tour regular-season standings, thus earning a ticket to the PGA Tour.
The 25-year-old is the blueprint for a modern Tour player, playing far (No. 7 on the Tour) but not always accurate (No. 94). Despite some directional issues on the tee, Yuan can fill it. His average of 4.54 birdies last season was seventh on the Korn Ferry Tour.
Those birdies turned into results, as Yuan had nine top-10 finishes in his 22 starts, including one win and three runner-up finishes.
With Aaron Wise improving the putter, I’ve officially promoted Brendan Steele to captain of the #TeamNoPutt. The three-time PGA Tour champion is sixth in SG/tee and 43rd in SG/approach. He’s… 187th in putters.
Let’s take a closer look at his batting abilities: According to the RickRunGood.com golf database, Steele had 1.55 at-bats per round in the batting category from the Arnold Palmer Invitational to the end of the season. It was the second best result on the PGA Tour, behind only Rory McIlroy! For more than half a season, Steele hit the ball like Rory McIlroy…but putt like Brendan Steele. That’s enough to get some investment from me.
Rahm has had a historically lackluster season in 2022. He became the 12th golfer in the ShotLink era (since 2004) to hit at least one stroke per round. The other 11 such seasons averaged 2.4 wins and 3.9 money list wins. Rahm has won just once — the Mexican Open is one of the weakest events of the year with +350 favorites — and is 15th on the money list. Common sense tells us that Lahm should have better “win luck” in the new season.
If Rahm gets a win this season, it could be even more valuable. Rahm has an 11-game streak with a combined odds of +900 or less. Since that streak ended at The Players Championship in 2022, Rahm has only been in the single digits twice in his last 12 games of the year. Oddsmakers have Rahm a step further than we’ve seen recently.
For the first time in his young career, Morikawa completed a PGA Tour season without a win. Don’t feel bad for him, he still has eight top 10 finishes and nearly $5 million on the court.
On the plus side, he achieved these top results despite battling putt issues and struggling to hit his patented chip. In the latter case, he seems to have found that feeling again, with a 22.02 in his last five PGA Tour starts.
While poor putting still annoys him at times, he’s capable of getting through a hot putting week. He scored at least two shots on seven different occasions last season, according to RickRunGood.com’s golf database. Over the summer, his odds gradually rise into the 20s, which is a great opportunity to buy on the cheap before Morikawa’s next victory.
Jooyhyung “Tom” Kim finished 23rd at the US Open and third at the Scottish Open before winning the Wyndham Championship. In just eight PGA Tour events since June, King has finished in the top 25 five times, including three in the top 10.
That’s a dangerously small sample size, but King shined last season. In his last seven games, he had a staggering 26.3 close and conceded just once from the tee. He’s a batting maniac who can catch fire with his putter. At just 20 years old, we’ll learn a lot about King this season, and we’ll probably learn that he’s a growing star.
In a circuit where most players want robotic, repeatable action, Theegala is an artist. He’s a feeling player who relies on raw talent rather than skill checkpoints. With that in mind, Theegala will be an inconsistent golfer this upcoming season. A few weeks he looked lost, and a few weeks he had everything dialed in.
Last season, Theegala had an advantage of at least nine strokes in five different events, and that advantage was evident. By comparison, two-time champion Max Homa had so many at-bats in just four games last season. Theegala has been gearing up for his breakthrough, and it looks like he will do so soon.